By: Nacho – GOI- Argentina
At the time of publishing this note, in the midst of a fragile “ceasefire” (recently extended by Trump) Iran controls the passage through the Strait of Hormuz, has boarded a series of cargo ships and allowed the passage of another thirty that agreed to pay as required by the regime. In addition, it retains a good part of its missile and drone capability, its enriched uranium and although with significant losses, it keeps the Islamist regime in power. A hard reality check for Trump and Netanyahu who after 50 days of uninterrupted attacks have not achieved a single objective. Even so, the war is far from over.
At this point there are many factors that explain why the United States, together with its military enclave in the Middle East, Israel, furiously attacked Iran. There is a combination of internal political crises:
popular unrest over the economy, scandals such as Epstein, an increase in popular rejection of support
for Israel, which went from 40 to 60% from 2022 to date, with considerable growth in recent weeks, and elections that are complicated for Trump. The internal crisis in Israel due to the genocide in Gaza and Netanyahu’s dealings, which have cost him legal cases and international arrest warrants.
Undoubtedly, Trump’s policy has been defined by a set of political, economic and military actions around the globe. The “tariff war” that even affects his traditional allies in Europe together with the transfer of costs due to the war in Ukraine, his bravado attitude towards Greenland and as an unprecedented event in recent years the kidnapping and capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, which so far appears as an important victory for Trump. In this case, he has managed to get the Venezuelan regime to kneel at his feet and hand over the country’s resources and sovereignty. All these actions are aimed at trying to transfer the costs of the brutal world economic crisis suffered by capitalism and recover political ground as dominant imperialism.
Like a thug or bully Trump relaunched the “Monroe Doctrine” of total domination in Latin America by relying on openly submissive governments (such as in Argentina, Chile, Paraguay, El Salvador and Ecuador among others) and others that claim to oppose him (such as Colombia, Mexico or Brazil) but do little to confront him. The United States seeks to recover the global sheriff badge constantly used before. Its possible that carrying out the “Epic Fury” operation against Iran appeared in Trump’s fantasies as a continuation of these actions. As an “opportunity” to deliver a decisive and quick blow to get a new trophy. But reality apparently has other plans and is showing the world that the “King” is naked.
Brute force vs popular resistance
Some 12,500 bombed targets (including air defenses, naval and military bases, factories and weapons), the destruction of the Iranian naval force (158 ships and bases) and the assassination of the Ayatollah and an important part of the regime’s historical military leadership. This is the official report of Secretary of War Peter Hegseth on the campaign against Iran.
The economic and military cost to the United States is staggering considering the overwhelming technological and military superiority: 95,000 million dollars according to conservative figures. The loss of more than a dozen state-of-the-art drones, long-range radars, damage and destruction in 17 of its regional bases, the downing of at least 3 F15s and 1 A10, the destruction of AWACS (radar and control) strategic and refueling aircraft, helicopters and the striking damage to one of its most important aircraft carriers, attributed to a “fire in the laundry”, that’s only what was reported in international media.
Even so, these are losses that for the moment do not jeopardize his ability to attack, but that could change if after this impasse Trump decides on a ground invasion. Currently the Yankee losses are 13 dead and 400 wounded, figures that could skyrocket to hundreds or thousands if the army invades Iranian territory, which could cost him the presidency and internal stability in the United States itself. The first signs of this have been expressed in the midst of the war with the forced resignation of the army Chief of Staff, Randy George and Navy Secretary, John Phelan, along with several high-ranking generals, apparent signs of high command crisis over the use of nuclear weapons. A measure that shows desperation.
On the other hand, the hidden aspect of the campaign is a policy of terror similar to that used in Palestine and Lebanon. Imperialism attacked civilian targets indiscriminately to increase the crisis in the population. According to the New York Times, Trump and Netanyahu bombed “at least” 763 schools and 316 health care facilities, with the massacre of 168 girls and adults in Minab (Hormozgan, Iran) being the most brutal event recorded and officially admitted. In addition to attacking civilian infrastructure such as power plants, desalination plants and threatening to “end a civilization”. What Trump fails to answer is which of his objectives, which he set and changed during the war, have been achieved. Reality shows that none. As the bourgeois press itself publicly admits, this in itself constitutes a defeat for imperialism that can be crowned if Trump is forced, for example, to withdraw from the region without any trophy. A scenario that he will try to avoid at all costs, probably starting a new round to try to balance the scales.
The Iranian people resist with blood and fire
The fact that Trump is suffering a major setback does not at all imply that the very hard blows received by Iran have had no effect. The wear and tear and loss of people and equipment is enormous. The reconstruction of destroyed universities, refineries, military bases and institutional complexes will take years. The question is why, despite having received attacks that would have brought almost any other nation to its knees, Iran is not surrendering.
Although the regime is carrying out an asymmetrical war seeking to wear down the United States so that it withdraws badly wounded, the answer to the question cannot be given only by thinking about the military or government apparatus, even less so after the insurrectionary revolts at the beginning of the year. In addition, the regime has shown itself incapable of protecting its most important figures. Not only the Ayatollah but mainly his senior commanders and more experienced cadres both in Iran and in Lebanon and Gaza. Due to the internal regime crisis, heightened by things stated above, and although it is not most likely, it cannot be ruled out that at some point, some kind of capitulation will occur in the eagerness to save the new leadership or its interests.
Therefore. Why has Trump and Netanyahu’s plan failed to overthrow the regime through attacks that would open the way to an anti-government mobilization? Why did the attacks on civilians and infrastructure not trigger instability and civil war? Iran’s secret does not appear in headlines or big news, because it is, in effect, a great problem for imperialism and a bad example for the region and the world.
The key to resistance lies in the Iranian working people. The same people who gave their lives in the streets fighting for better living conditions and were harshly repressed by the regime are the ones who united like a rock in the face of the savage attack by U.S. imperialism. They understood that their survival as a nation (and culture) depended on confronting not only in social networks and speeches, but with weapons, the aggression of the greatest power in the world. The “Coup de Grace” to overthrow the Persian nation ended up being the catalyst that unified the Iranian people against Western bombs. An unparalleled show of power by a people who knew how to overthrow the reign of the Shah, confront the regime of the ayatollahs with their lives and imperialism itself. It is also a card to the regime itself: as soon as the aggression ends, the people will sooner or later resume their struggle for an Iran that guarantees their living conditions.
Trump and Netanyahu seek a second round
Like a beast wounded in pride, powerless after having attacked with all its arsenal (except nuclear) and not having achieved its objectives… imperialism is preparing a new round against Iran. The evidence is beginning to accumulate: the sabotage of the peace talks in Islamabad, Pakistan, after a call from Netanyahu, and Trump’s current “blockade of the blockade”, which includes attacks on civilian cargo ships, are just a few. The United States is once again accumulating war materiel in the region, as shown by successive flights with weapons to the Middle East and the movement of the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush to the region. It is possible that the impasse of “peace talks” or “extension of the truce” is actually a tactic to buy time and reaccommodate.
Trump has failed to drag the NATO coalition to support him. After the refusals of France and the United Kingdom, Italy and Spain have taken positions of harsh criticism of Israel and against attacks on Iran. The internal European crisis and Russia’s own war in Ukraine do not help NATO to come out in support of it as has been at other times. Neither Trump’s tariff “war”, and the constant disrespect and threats.
For its part, the Iranian regime itself refused to participate in new peace talks, accusing the United States of using them as a distraction. The troops of Ansarallah (Houthis in Yemen) that could close the Bab elMandeb strait in the Red Sea have already been declared on alert, there is evidence of 50 speedboats operating in the Strait of Hormuz and works detected by satellite to unearth access to “missile cities”, which would allow Iran to recover firepower for a new conflict.
Unlike the United States, Iran does not have declared allies. Much to the chagrin of those who see a world of “campist” confrontation between great powers, as if it were a re-edition of cold war hollywood, neither China nor Russia have entered the war. Of course, as good capitalist states they act speculatively and try to take advantage of their location (being outside NATO and military pacts with the United States) to do business and benefit. Just like Iran sold hundreds of Shahed drones to Russia to attack Ukraine, now Putin (who has been losing ground in the Middle East after the fall of dictator Al Assad in Syria) is surely working to sell weapons or systems to Iran. As for China, Iran’s purchase of a satellite has been made public, with which they have hit targets in real time. In exchange, Iran has increased the sale of oil and derivatives to China before and during the war. Something similar to what Russia did during the sanctions for the invasion of Ukraine. In short, reality shows that relations between these states are ordered by business and opportunities, not by alliances or strategic military blocs, much less ideological.
Trump can lose
A new war action by the United States and Israel will have the objective of recovering lost ground and “finish the job”. This presents a historic opportunity in which imperialism, eager to recover from being already seriously wounded, could be defeated. This would open a particular moment for the workers of the world and their struggles as it becomes clear that the “all-powerful” United States can effectively lose. It would have an immediate impact on a number of governments dependent on the United States and that act as agents against their own people. It would undoubtedly be fatal for Netanyahu in Israel and a hard blow for those who have opted to follow Trump and his eagerness to increase the colonization of nations. In short, it would be a triumph of the working class against imperialism and its austerity governments. But what conditions should be in place for Trump’s defeat to finally materialize?
The United States has suffered different historical defeats such as in Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan. They have been different processes and in different contexts, but even so there are central elements that have combined. On the one hand, a fierce popular and armed resistance on the part of the peoples of the attacked nations. On the other hand, an attrition caused by the pressure of U.S. population against the war and of the peoples of the world for the defeat of the United States. Therefore, it is possible to deal a mortal blow to the United States, but it will not come from Russia or China but from the workers of the world.
To help defeat Trump and Netanyahu, a strong campaign against the attack on Iran is necessary, in the United States and Israel, with mobilizations, sabotage, strikes and actions. There is an important starting point that is the massive mobilizations against Trump on “No Kings Day” and the even more advanced processes of resistance, which confront armed repression, against the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) and its deportations. This must be replicated in any country that provides support for the imperialist war, whether with materials or troops.
On the other hand, it is necessary that at the international level a campaign for the defeat of the United States and solidarity with the Iranian resistance to the attacks is organized. A great starting point is the movement against the genocide in Palestine and against Israel. But it must be extended to Lebanon and Iran and abandon its pacifist aspect. To defeat imperialism it is necessary to take actions that weaken its military campaign. It is not only a matter of establishing a position but of setting up a concrete process of support for the war against imperialism. It is possible to promote mobilizations, blockade ports, affect supply chains and launch strikes in strategic places. It is possible to again, take up the flags that thousands raised before the invasion of Iraq in the 2000s, under the “Yankee GO HOME” against George W. Bush. For their part, the labor federations must organize effective and material support for the resistance, even more so if a ground invasion begins. This implies armaments, brigades and concrete support. This is already happening in Iraq and Bahrain as well as Yemen, Lebanon and Syria. But so far it is the Islamist regime that controls these processes.
It is necessary as revolutionaries and socialists to place themselves in the military terrain against imperialism with absolute political independence from the Iranian dictatorship. That’s why the path is that of anti-imperialist action proposing an independent and workers’ solution. We must aim against United States and Israel and at the same time build a workers’ and people’s alternative, independent of the regime, and then settle accounts with it. For this we reiterate the need to fight to expand all social, trade union and organizational rights in Iran and the urgent arming of the entire population.
In order to pave the way for an independent and workers’ solution, it is necessary to form and grow groups and parties that raise the revolutionary banners of the working class and socialism in Iran and throughout the world. From our humble place as an international grouping, we are at the service of this task.
For the triumph of Iran! For the defeat of imperialism!
